PREDICTING FORUM

_____________________________________THE FORUM OF PREDICTING________________________________________
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Thursday, February 23, 2012

PSYCHOHISTORY AND PREDICTING



Psychohistory the logic of predicting

Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy.

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